Toyota Recall: Scandal, Media Circus, and Stupid Drivers
How Big is This Problem?
We're no Toyota apologists, but if you look past the media circus, the numbers don't reveal a meaningful problem. Every man, woman, and child in the U.S. has approximately a one-in-8000 chance of perishing in a car accident every year. Over a decade, that's about one in 800. Given the millions of cars included in the Toyota recalls and the fewer than 20 alleged deaths over the past decade, the alleged fatality rate is about one death per 200,000 recalled Toyotas. Even if all the alleged deaths really are resultant from vehicle defects—highly unlikely—and even if all the worst things people are speculating about Toyotas are true, and you're driving one, and you aren't smart or calm enough to shift to neutral if the thing surges, you're still approximately 250 times likelier to die in one of these cars for reasons having nothing to do with unintended acceleration. So if you can muster the courage to get into a car and drive, the additional alleged risk of driving a Toyota is virtually negligible.
* Source: Car And Driver
Those numbers alone would actually be pretty scary to me if it weren't for the fact that I know how to deal with a runaway vehicle. It amazes me that more people don't just step on the brake till the car stops and the the NHTSA doesn't issue a statement to that effect. Heck, the first thing they should do is require Toyota to send notices to that effect to all people who have cars and put out public announcements on TV, radio and magazines. This would probably have saved most of the lives...not to mention saving lives of people who have the same problem with other manufacturers cars.
By the way, averaging the death rate to figure out your chance of getting killed in an auto accident is generally going to yield an inaccurate number. There are a whole bunch of factors that change your chances greatly.
1. Driving experience. Years of driving.
2. Sober driving.
3. Auto safety (air bags (front and rear), antilock brakes, traction control, 5 star crash rating.)
4. Good tires inflated correctly...winter tires when driving in snow and ice.
5. Driving choices...ie choosing not to drive under certain conditions...heavy snow or fog.
6. Accident avoidance training. Similar to the #1, but some people never get this training.
7. Attentive driving...not texting...or reading.
8. Rested driving...not driving while tired.
9. Driving correctly for conditions...driving without aggression.
While you can't avoid everything, you can make a HUGE difference by being smart. Friday, a boy from our high school and his friend were killed on the road in Indiana during one of the worst snow storms of the year. They slid their Jeep into an oncoming car. At very least they were against the odds from 1, 3, 5, 6, and 9. I would not be surprised if 4 wasn't an issue as well.
Here is why our family has a much lower risk.
1. Spend a lot of time in car with kids advising them on proper driving techniques and awareness. Otherwise, they are young boys and this is the thing I am the least in control of.
2. I don't drink and drive and the kids get this lecture all the time as well as lectured never to drive with someone who has been drinking.
3. We bought modern cars with all the safety features.
4. Keep tires with good tread and proper inflation and switch to winter tires (they are on the cars now.)
5. Boys are grounded from driving in very bad weather.
6. Sent boys to Mid Ohio Defensive driving class.
7. Never do this. Boys are lectured on this as well.
8. Always make sure I'm well rested before trips. If tired, hand over driving to someone else.
9. Take a breath or laugh off other stupid drivers. Remind myself that they will probably eventually get a ticket or killed, while I will get there in one piece.