Self-driving cars will kill people and we need to accept that

[Sal Collaziano]

Recently, headlines have been circulating speculation about what we need to do about the risks of self-driving vehicles. After one of its self-driving vehicles was responsible for a fatal crash, Uber has temporarily paused all autonomous vehicle testing in the state of Arizona. In its wake, Arizona Governor Douglas Ducey has reiterated his position to prioritize public safety as a top priority and has described the Uber accident as an “unquestionable failure” in preserving this priority.

Also recently, Tesla confirmed that a recent highway crash (which killed the driver of the vehicle) happened while the Tesla Autopilot system (a semi-autonomous feature) was controlling the car. This is the second accident in which the Tesla Autopilot system was at least partially at fault.

To many consumers, these incidents are a confirmation of something they suspected all along; trusting an AI system to handle driving is a mistake and one that’s destined to kill people. Self-driving cars, they therefore conclude, need to be heavily regulated and scrutinized, and potentially delayed indefinitely, until we can be sure that they’ll bring no harm to their drivers and passengers.

This is an inherently flawed view. It’s not a good thing that self-driving cars have killed people, but testing them in real-world situations is a necessary thing if we want to keep moving forward toward a safer, brighter future. And unless we want to jeopardize that future, we need to get over our fears.

Self-driving cars are going to kill people. Period.
First, we need to recognize that no matter what safeguards we put in place or how cautious we are with rolling out self-driving technology, autonomous vehicles are going to be involved in fatal collisions.

There are 325 million people in the United States and more than 260 million registered vehicles. Cars and pedestrians are constantly engaging in a world with random variables, from unexpected traffic patterns to crazy weather conditions to sudden falling objects obstructing the road. With a fleet of vehicles traveling millions of miles, it’s inevitable that some conditions could make an accident unavoidable—no matter how advanced the driving algorithm is.

No matter what, people are going to die at the “hands” of an autonomous vehicle. Read more...

 

[EdP]

Self-driving cars are going to kill people. Period.
First, we need to recognize that no matter what safeguards we put in place or how cautious we are with rolling out self-driving technology, autonomous vehicles are going to be involved in fatal collisions.

Yes, they will kill people, but, more important, they will save lives. If no one ever died in a car accident from human failure, I'd agree, don't trust AI to do what we do better. Real life is, many of us are really poor drivers and AI can do a better job than many. Us humans killed 40,000 people last year.

 

[joneillnj]

Yes, they will kill people, but, more important, they will save lives. If no one ever died in a car accident from human failure, I'd agree, don't trust AI to do what we do better. Real life is, many of us are really poor drivers and AI can do a better job than many. Us humans killed 40,000 people last year.

But then it won’t matter what you drive as the car will control how it’s driven - G70 vs. Prius won’t matter. Self driving cars will eventually suck any possibility of fun out of driving - I get the driver assistance aids, but fully automous? No thank you!

 

[EdP]

But then it won’t matter what you drive as the car will control how it’s driven - G70 vs. Prius won’t matter. Self driving cars will eventually suck any possibility of fun out of driving - I get the driver assistance aids, but fully automous? No thank you!

I doubt we will ever be 100% autonomous. There is also nothing to stop you from driving when you want to at this point. The benefit will be on long tiring, boring, trips, elderly people that maybe should not be driving at night, if at all, those that think they can still drive after drinking.

Driving can be fun most of the time. Driving down I95 around Washington DC is tedious at best and I'd not mind pushing a button for a 50 mile stretch.

 

[Mark_888]

But then it won’t matter what you drive as the car will control how it’s driven - G70 vs. Prius won’t matter.

You are probably correct. Also consider that if true autonomous driving is achieved on widespread basis, then people won't have to own their own cars. That's why Uber is one of the biggest players in the autonomous driving effort.

 

[joneillnj]

I doubt we will ever be 100% autonomous. There is also nothing to stop you from driving when you want to at this point. The benefit will be on long tiring, boring, trips, elderly people that maybe should not be driving at night, if at all, those that think they can still drive after drinking.

Driving can be fun most of the time. Driving down I95 around Washington DC is tedious at best and I'd not mind pushing a button for a 50 mile stretch.

Government will eventually prevent you from driving on your own or make your insurance rates astronomical if you do drive yourself on this trajectory - luckily, that’s likey long after I’m dead.

 

[joneillnj]

You are probably correct. Also consider that if true autonomous driving is achieved on widespread basis, then people won't have to own their own cars. That's why Uber is one of the biggest players in the autonomous driving effort.

Personally, I like the driver assist apects of autonomous tech but really enjoy driving. While I can see the benefits of Uber in an urban environment (cost to insure and park a car in NYC are crazy, for example) - I enjoy the freedom to hop in my car to go wherever I want whenever I want. I’ll never give that up while I’m capable of driving myself.

 

[Mark_888]

Personally, I like the driver assist apects of autonomous tech but really enjoy driving. While I can see the benefits of Uber in an urban environment (cost to insure and park a car in NYC are crazy, for example) - I enjoy the freedom to hop in my car to go wherever I want whenever I want. I’ll never give that up while I’m capable of driving myself.

I have occasionally used Uber in a suburban environment, and there is not much of a wait. If autonomous driving is widespread and Uber has it instead of live drivers, then the number of cars they (and other services) have available will be sufficient to met demand in almost all cases.

 

[EdP]

I enjoy the freedom to hop in my car to go wherever I want whenever I want. I’ll never give that up while I’m capable of driving myself.

While I agree with you, that is part of the problem. Will we recognize when we are no longer capable? I've seen older drivers that should not be behind the wheel but they had no easy way to get anyplace without a car. Autonomous would be great for that.

 

[joneillnj]

I have occasionally used Uber in a suburban environment, and there is not much of a wait. If autonomous driving is widespread and Uber has it instead of live drivers, then the number of cars they (and other services) have available will be sufficient to met demand in almost all cases.

Not ever something I’d be willing to give up my own car for. My daughter lives in NYC and left her car here and takes Uber or mass transit to get around and that makes sense. Autonomous Ubers in NYC would be better than the crazy taxi drivers there - so, again, makes sense in that context.

However, autonomous driving is even farther away from reality in non urban areas - throw in heavy fog, rain or snow and all if these systems fail in a big way, especially on more rural, narrow roads with poor markings - how about a newly paved road that has no lines yet, or temp construction zones/reroutes not on maps or marked consistently = common occurrance and major fail for autonomous tech. Of course, they say the driver still needs to pay attention to intervene - the problem is how likely is that when the driver is watching TV:

Why Can't Americans Have Nice Things - Audiworld

No thanks - not for me!

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[joneillnj]

While I agree with you, that is part of the problem. Will we recognize when we are no longer capable? I've seen older drivers that should not be behind the wheel but they had no easy way to get anyplace without a car. Autonomous would be great for that.

Fair enough - could be solved with required license recertification after a certain age, say 65 (not broadly suggesting that is a problem age). However, as I don’t think point A to point B driving in many locations will ever be FULLY autonomous in all conditions, Uber is a better solution for those folks.

 

[EdP]

However, autonomous driving is even farther away from reality in non urban areas - throw in heavy fog, rain or snow and all if these systems fail in a big way, especially on more rural, narrow roads with poor markings - how about a newly paved road that has no lines yet, or temp construction zones/reroutes not on maps or marked consistently = common occurrance and major fail for autonomous tech.

Years ago the sun revolved around the earth too, but science fixed that.
I've seen predictions that we will have autonomous cars in 2020 but I think it won't really be a big factor for a few decades beyond that. As I said, it will never be 100% but it can get better. Road markings? Just look at the improvement from a few decades ago and see how it can be even better. Perhaps the paint used for lines will have additives better picked up by sensors. I see newly paved roads with temporary marking within hours. Those narrow roads with poor markings are already accident prone but could be made safer with the right markings and a sensor that accurately follows them at the correct speed.

I can't change your mind, but sit back and watch what happens in a few years. It's coming.

 

[joneillnj]

Years ago the sun revolved around the earth too, but science fixed that.
I've seen predictions that we will have autonomous cars in 2020 but I think it won't really be a big factor for a few decades beyond that. As I said, it will never be 100% but it can get better. Road markings? Just look at the improvement from a few decades ago and see how it can be even better. Perhaps the paint used for lines will have additives better picked up by sensors. I see newly paved roads with temporary marking within hours. Those narrow roads with poor markings are already accident prone but could be made safer with the right markings and a sensor that accurately follows them at the correct speed.

I can't change your mind, but sit back and watch what happens in a few years. It's coming.

I didn’t say it’s not coming - I’m an engineer so I am a tech guy. However, I don’t believe all of the hype and rosy pictures of how we are only 2 years away. There are still HUGE tech obstacles (and liability issues) to be solved. There are also infrastructure improvements needed to support it that will require investment that municipalities will have to fund - and they can’t even keep the current roads in good shape.

BTW - what happens in those hours before the temp markings are in place on a newly paved road? As I said, I get that it’s coming as the vast majority of people (esp millennials) are not car enthusiasts and could care less about driving - that way that can make sure they are up to date on Instagram, etc., as they “drive” (which for those idiots I see all the time is a good thing).

For me, beyond the nice safety back up, I have no real use for this tech and would not (and do not currently in my Audi that has pretty advanced systems) blindly trust it in any of my cars.

My hands are on the wheel and I’m scanning the road and surroundings for hazards. Just last night I was coming home and noticed a herd of deer sprinting accross a field to my far left (almost 90 degrees left) and slowed way down before I went around the upcoming left hand bend - sure enough, after I made the turn they bolted out of the brush right in front of me. Had I not been actively looking, I never would have anticipated the crossing and slowed down and the results would not have been pretty. We’re far away from that kind is situational awareness in automomous cars today.

 

[EdP]

I didn’t say it’s not coming - I’m an engineer so I am a tech guy. However, I don’t believe all of the hype and rosy pictures of how we are only 2 years away.

BTW - what happens in those hours before the temp markings are in place on a newly paved road? .

I agree it will take many years.

I bet some engineer will come up with an idea for faster marking after paving. Maybe even something embedded during the paving operation. You see the problems but as an engineer I'm surprised you don't see potential solutions. Sort of like saying don't invent the airplane because airports don't exist.

 

[joneillnj]

I agree it will take many years.

I bet some engineer will come up with an idea for faster marking after paving. Maybe even something embedded during the paving operation. You see the problems but as an engineer I'm surprised you don't see potential solutions. Sort of like saying don't invent the airplane because airports don't exist.

It’s not that I don’t see solutions, it’s just that the solutions will take time to develop/prove out and cost money (which is already almost non-existant for infrastucture projects or there are higher priorites like the bridge disasters waiting to happen in this country). My biggest gripe with all of this (despite seeing no personal value in an AI car for me at this stage of my life and fear it will eventually be imposed on the masses) is the suggestions that we are really close to widespread deployment of fully autonomous vehicles. Sorry, I don’t buy that yet.

And, your analogy is off as you clearly didn’t need airports to invent or deploy the airplane. Heck, there were barely roads back then - you just needed an open field. However, you do need automomous vehicles to be able to handle all road hazards/conditions and drive safey with other vehicles BEFORE you deploy them.

Further, it will take cooperation among automakers and likely uniform standards (and potentially networking so AI cars can be aware of and “talk” to other vehicles) to really be safe. A good example of a widespread issue is that all 3 of the cars in my house with autonomous features routinely experience random false positives with blindspot and parking sensors - likely caused by cross talk between sensors from different vehicles - BMW’s always seem to trigger the Audi at traffic lights.

So, yeah... still not close which is fine by me.

 

[Mark_888]

Years ago the sun revolved around the earth too, but science fixed that.

Yeah, and for a long time after that people thought the Sun was the center of universe. Even today, no one knows what is the center, or if there is a center.

 

[homeofstone]

The liability question is be a big one. example:
Who did repairs that damaged the AI that caused an accident? Low income owners that purchase a 10 year old self driving car and then the system fails and kills people; this creates a question about long term warranty and required system checks. So, IMO there is a lot to sort out.

 

[joneillnj]

Yeah, and for a long time after that people thought the Sun was the center of universe. Even today, no one knows what is the center, or if there is a center.

The center of which universe? There may very likely be many:

Stephen Hawking’s final scientific paper explores the mysteries of the multiverse—but it’s not a big deal

 

[Mark_888]

The center of which universe? There may very likely be many:

Stephen Hawking’s final scientific paper explores the mysteries of the multiverse—but it’s not a big deal

Not to dispute that there are, or may be, multiple universes (and idea not started by Hawking), here is one scientist (among many) who say he is wildly overrated by the public.

Is he [Stephen Hawking] recognized by his peers (fellow theoretical physicists) to be one of the greatest minds of our time, as he is frequently referred to in the media?​

​

No, he is not. Although he does get their respect, he is not given the reverence amongst his peers that he is in the general public. Stephen Hawking’s reputation amongst the general public is overrated and the Discovery Channel once said he is the greatest mind on the planet, to which I’ve been quoted as saying, “He’s just its most intelligent comedian.”​

​

As the person who has caught more of his errors than anyone else, and who was the single person who dared challenge him over the Higgs Boson once he made public his position that it wouldn’t be discovered, I’m in a unique position to level such a critique because I’ve spent the time to look over his work and research his standing in the physics community. I think a quote I used on the back of my book on Hawking, Space Warps and Time Tunnels says it all -​

​

“There’s a tremendous gulf between the public perception of the importance of Hawking and the scientific evaluation of his contribution.”​

​

- Peter Coles, University of Nottingham​

 

[PMCErnie]

Driving, one of life's pleasures, probably ranks right behind eating, sex and TV. It's not likely to be replaced anytime soon. Would you let a computer do any of those other things for you?

Just imagine how much fun most human drivers will have cutting off self-driving vehicles on the roadways once they appear in any numbers. The automated vehicles will be cowering along the shoulders of roads, unable to proceed, their computers flummoxed and short-circuited.