GV70 - honest discussion

[Chad86tsi]

I’ll refer you to the graph I posted earlier. Note the cost by location from ultra-low cost regions (Chile, middle east) to high cost locations. The world is passing 1000 GW cumulative installed this year, giving us $.01 to $.02 per kwh installed in the best locations. When the sun is half that costs roughly double. That’s everywhere from the yellow region up below.
View attachment 37964
3x more expensive is in the greens, which would be in the ~$.06 per kWh range today— filling up your 300 mile tank for $5.40. Now add wind, which is in the $3.60 per “tank” range and also falling, and happens to often do well in places and at times solar doesn’t:
View attachment 37965

View attachment 37966
Currently there are few incentive systems in the US for people to use power when it’s cheapest. That’s changing, and with it demand will begin to follow generation rather than vice versa. There are limited technologies to facilitate this so far, but that’s also changing. The new F150 lightening for example not only lets you charge with cheaper power but it actually lets you discharge to power your entire house when power is expensive. Industrial heat (~25% of world energy use) will flip to electric and be a swing batter, powering from electric when it’s cheap and gas when it’s not, largely eliminating seasonality as a major obstacle to high renewable fractions in the process. All enabled and indeed triggered by energy far cheaper than what’s come before.

No one said the revolution is over- we’re still in the early stages. Just that the technology that we’re evolving to already exists and the writing’s on the wall. Ice will remain in some long haul applications into the 2030s, but economics dictate that the vast majority of passenger cars will be EV and soon. Currently EVs are more expensive to buy than ICE cars but cheaper to run. That’s expected to change by 2025- EVs will be both cheaper buy and much cheaper to run, radically so with a little flexibility on when you charge. From there it’s over, though obviously the fleet and lineups will take time to turn.

I love ICE cars and you’ll pry my GT3 engine from my cold dead hands. Unfortunately there’s simply no way they’re surviving this energy revolution in substantial numbers. I just hope the specialty cars (especially the few actually more enjoyable to drive than EVs) will be around for a while.

It doesn't matter what the cost is, it matters when people use it and where is the supply and where is the demand. When do people charge their cars? When is the sun out? That it becomes cheap in the middle of the day in some sunny places does little for most of us that don't live in sunny places, and/or work 8-5 and use our cars to get there and are forced to charge at home at night when carbon generation peaks. Solar will continue to grow, and serve load. It won't make EV cars more green in most cases as we sell more of them and make more solar supply.

I'm in a yellow zone in your solar radiation map. My city officially has 144 sunny days a year, and they are not conveniently every other day so I can plan ahead. That leaves 221 days a year that are not sunny. How will my EV be charged buy the sun in November? "It won't" is the correct answer. Thank goodness we have other sources that can be ramped up in a matter of minutes on demand (carbon). This carbon supply isn't going away, and solar is going to saturate the market and achieve diminishing returns in many markets in which it works well. Carbon will power EV's for a long time, regardless of how much solar we can make.

 

[Dunbar]

It doesn't matter what the cost is, it matters when people use it and where is the supply and where is the demand. When do people charge their cars? When is the sun out? That it becomes cheap in the middle of the day in some sunny places does little for most of us that don't live in sunny places, and/or work 8-5 and use our cars to get there and are forced to charge at home at night when carbon generation peaks. Solar will continue to grow, and serve load. It won't make EV cars more green in most cases as we sell more of them and make more solar supply.

I'm in a yellow zone in your solar radiation map. My city officially has 144 sunny days a year, and they are not conveniently every other day so I can plan ahead. That leaves 221 days a year that are not sunny. How will my EV be charged buy the sun in November? "It won't" is the correct answer. Thank goodness we have other sources that can be ramped up in a matter of minutes on demand (carbon). This carbon supply isn't going away, and solar is going to saturate the market and achieve diminishing returns in many markets in which it works well. Carbon will power EV's for a long time, regardless of how much solar we can make.

Again, that’s just false. EV’s charged with electricity provided by natural gas are still getting the equivalent of 58mpg. That’s a lot more energy efficient that gasoline powered vehicles. When renewables aren’t producing power you fall back on other energy sources including some fossil fuels. You say it’s not possible and yet California has managed to reduce it’s CO2 emissions from electricity production by something like 40% in less than 10 years. You can deny reality or accept the fact that it’s already happening. There are several large solar projects under construction in Georgia and Florida as we speak. Last time I checked those areas have a lot of people living in them and get plenty of sun.

 

[Chad86tsi]

The studies show that charging an EV with electricity powered by natural gas is the equivalent of 58mpg. Still a lot greener than the average ICE car. I’m all for adding chargers at people’s work and charging them with green energy.

California already gets 50% of its annual electricity usage from renewables. Add in nuclear and it’s closer to 55%. Clearly it is possible and it’s already being done. I don’t get the black or white view of renewables. The goal here is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over time and that’s exactly what California is doing. The only reason fossil fuels are still competitive is because we say that the CO2 emissions (externality) costs users zero. If we actually put a price on carbon emissions fossil fuels would have a much harder time competing.

Toyota, Volkswagen, and others have been making cars that beat those MPG's for decades now. EV's are another way to do the same. They aren't a magic bullet some think they are.

Price keeps coming up, it's not price that drives behavior, it's need. If it cost X to heat your home when it's very cold out and Y to not heat your home at all, are you saying most will just choose Y? Some will, but many will choose X. If you only charge your car with solar panels, you are achieving the promise of EV. If you aren't, you are still part of the problem.

 

[Chad86tsi]

Again, that’s just false. EV’s charged with electricity provided by natural gas are still getting the equivalent of 58mpg. That’s a lot more energy efficient that gasoline powered vehicles. When renewables aren’t producing power you fall back on other energy sources including some fossil fuels. You say it’s not possible and yet California has managed to reduce it’s CO2 emissions from electricity production by something like 40% in less than 10 years. You can deny reality or accept the fact that it’s already happening. There are several large solar projects under construction in Georgia and Florida as we speak. Last time I checked those areas have a lot of people living in them and get plenty of sun.

Where have I said it's not possible, and what specifically was I saying? California is one sate among 50, what of the other 49? There is solar in my state too, and it does generate power in bulk quantities. Still doesn't work when it's dark out, and people still need power and charge their EV's when its dark out. What reality are you talking about? The one where all EV's only consume green watts?

 

[Dunbar]

California is also close to 1/7 of the population of the US. Last time I checked lots of people live in the sun belt of the US. Let’s not pretend the population is evenly distributed in all 50 states. The Pacific Northwest and New York state have access to hydro electric power. Some central states like Wyoming are prime candidates for wind power. This article deals with the lifetime emissions of EVs. They still see EVs as a net benefit over time versus ICE. As the energy requirement to produce the battery packs goes down over time, and the grid gets greener, EVs will continue to get greener.

Are Electric Cars Really Better for the Environment?

EVs produce fewer emissions overall than their gas-powered counterparts, but there are caveats

www.wsj.com

 

[Chad86tsi]

California is also close to 1/7 of the population of the US. Last time I checked lots of people live in the sun belt of the US. Let’s not pretend the population is evenly distributed in all 50 states. The Pacific Northwest and New York state have access to hydro electric power. Some central states like Wyoming are prime candidates for wind power. This article deals with the lifetime emissions of EVs. They still see EVs as a net benefit over time versus ICE. As the energy requirement to produce the battery packs goes down over time, and the grid gets greener, EVs will continue to get greener.

Are Electric Cars Really Better for the Environment?

EVs produce fewer emissions overall than their gas-powered counterparts, but there are caveats

www.wsj.com

And lets not pretend the 6/7ths of the population of the US live in sunny places with lots of Solar capacity.

Can't read your pay per view article. Does it address -when- EV's are charged (time of day), or does it just average all watts-per-day together? Yes, the grid gets greener, but -when- is it green? When cars are plugged in?

 

[Dunbar]

And lets not pretend the 6/7ths of the population of the US live in sunny places with lots of Solar capacity.

Can't read your pay per view article. Does it address -when- EV's are charged (time of day), or does it just average all watts-per-day together? Yes, the grid gets greener, but -when- is it green? When cars are plugged in?

Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Georgia plus much of the rest of the southeast. The Pacific Northwest and New York state already have pretty green electricity grids. The article deals with the sources of power. EVs still come out ahead as long as you’re not burning coal to power them.

 

[Backslack]

This board is going to be so much fun when the electric G80 and GV70 come out and their owners join us.

 

[PetevB]

It doesn't matter what the cost is, it matters when people use it and where is the supply and where is the demand. When do people charge their cars?

They charge when power is cheapest. Typically today that’s (for them) at night. For the electric companies in California, however, typically power is cheapest from 9-12 am. The incentives are not aligned, because up until a couple years ago there was no reason to align them and the regulations and hardware to do that have not caught up. But they will, quickly because there’s billions at stake, and then people will again charge when power is cheapest. Payback on putting a charger in is well under a year with these prices. You’re suggesting we would have stuck with whale blubber when cheaper petroleum came along just because that’s how we always did it and our lamps weren’t designed for it. We invented an entirely new infrastructure from thin air- refinement, pipelines, tankers, holding tanks, gas stations, because petroleum was cheaper than the way we did it before. You really think we can’t figure out how to change the time of day when we charge our cars?

That it becomes cheap in the middle of the day in some sunny places does little for most of us that don't live in sunny places

I don’t think you understand: with today’s prices you live in a “sunny place”.

I'm in a yellow zone in your solar radiation map. My city officially has 144 sunny days a year, and they are not conveniently every other day so I can plan ahead. That leaves 221 days a year that are not sunny.

PV does not make zero power on a non-sunny day. That’s CSP. PV is going to generate 30%+ of its best peak power on a typical overcast day. If you’re in the yellow zone that’s still some of the cheapest power you can make, around $0.04 per kWh, cheaper than any other new generation you can build except (probably) wind depending on your location. In fact you can put 2x as much as you need online so that you cloudy days never fall below 60% of peak and still be cheaper than adding new gas or coal plants. And that’s with today’s prices- just past mid decade they are half that, and now you’re cheaper than even keep your fossil fuel plants running. And you have an excess of power around noon on most days, power that’s virtually free… if only there was something that could use that power…? If only industry was using some of that excess electricity in the summer, then switched to gas in the winter (burning it at 90% efficiency to make heat) freeing up excess electricity for the grid. If only we could tie the cost of power to its availability…

This is forecast is Bloomberg New Energy world generation outlook purely based on economics, no subsidies or regulations. They have since revised renewables up as they have consistently beaten their estimated costs. Guess what the price of electricity looks like towards noon in this scenario most days? Hint: look Chile today.

 

[Chad86tsi]

Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Texas, Florida, Georgia plus much of the rest of the southeast. The Pacific Northwest and New York state already have pretty green electricity grids. The article deals with the sources of power. EVs still come out ahead as long as you’re not burning coal to power them.

So we all agree now that EV's run on carbon a lot of the time, and given time-of day-charging constraints, most likely a large majority of the time?

If it's just about efficiency then, why not just get a Prius and not over-tax the power grid? If the goal is all about CO2, an Prius seems to fare about the same, without the battery packs and grid issues.

Seems like we should all be driving prius-like cars by now. We aren't. Why not? Seems there is more to the EV equation than their carbon efficiency being such a break though, with it being similar to ICE cars that have been on the road for 2 decades, and that means EV's are not so green after all. We should still make them, just as we can still buy a prius for under $25K.

2026 Toyota Prius | Toyota.com

Impressive from every angle, the 2026 Toyota Prius pairs striking design with dynamic handling, advanced tech, and hybrid efficiency for every kind of drive.

www.toyota.com

Those states have green grids when green power is available, it's not available 24 hours a day. When it's on, it's great, when it's off, then what? Some of those states have a lot of coal power, more than may be realized.

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[EdP]

Toyota, Volkswagen, and others have been making cars that beat those MPG's for decades now. EV's are another way to do the same. They aren't a magic bullet some think they are.

Price keeps coming up, it's not price that drives behavior, it's need. If it cost X to heat your home when it's very cold out and Y to not heat your home at all, are you saying most will just choose Y? Some will, but many will choose X. If you only charge your car with solar panels, you are achieving the promise of EV. If you aren't, you are still part of the problem.

That would depends on the balance needed for the power plants. They don't shut down like how you turn off the gas range. If during peak times solar takes the brunt of the load the power plant can coast and what would be idle time at night is then utilized.

Yes, Toyota does make cars that get high mileage. But we want the goodies of a Genesis instead. They don't get 58 mpg yet.

 

[Chad86tsi]

They charge when power is cheapest. Typically today that’s (for them) at night.

So they charge with almost entirely non-renewables then? Thanks for confirming.

You’re suggesting we would have stuck with whale blubber when cheaper petroleum came along just because that’s how we always did it and our lamps weren’t designed for it.

LOL, I said no such thing. I'm suggesting EV's aren't clean energy cars, because they aren't.

We invented an entirely new infrastructure from thin air- refinement, pipelines, tankers, holding tanks, gas stations, because petroleum was cheaper than the way we did it before.

How long did it take? how many decades was it? the grid will need rebuilt. That's easy to do, right?

PV does not make zero power on a non-sunny day. That’s CSP. PV is going to generate 30%+ of its best peak power on a typical overcast day. If you’re in the yellow zone that’s still some of the cheapest power you can make, around $0.04 per kWh, cheaper than any other new generation you can build except (probably) wind depending on your location. In fact you can put 2x as much as you need online so that you cloudy days never fall below 60% of peak and still be cheaper than adding new gas or coal plants.

and even at 30%, it's still only 30% capacity for about 8-10 hours a day. I'm sure that works for some, it won't work for most. Are you going to build night time solar next?

 

[EdP]

We won't be seeing any electric F-150's in Montana or other parts of the wide open west where 200 mile daily drives are common. Its's just not going to happen and there's no reason it should. The USA could reduce it's "carbon footprint" by 50% but China, India, Mexico and others could care less. Kind of like washing one side of you face.

That is quite a profound statement.
They may not sell as well as other places but the regular range is 220 miles, extended range is 300 miles. I bet plenty of the trucks never go more than 50 miles in a day too.

Tesla is launching in India this year. India is making some effort to reduce smog with electric scooters and bikes too.

Found this about China
What percentage of cars in China are electric?
China has 44% of all the EVs in the world (more than 4.5 million), and the nearly 3.2 million in Europe account for about 31%. The fastest growth in EV sales has been in Europe: a compound annual growth rate of 60% from 2016 to 2020, compared with increases of 36% in China and 17% in the U.S.

 

[PetevB]

LOL, I said no such thing. I'm suggesting EV's aren't clean energy cars, because they aren't.

How long did it take? how many decades was it? the grid will need rebuilt. That's easy to do, right?

and even at 30%, it's still only 30% capacity for about 8-10 hours a day. I'm sure that works for some, it won't work for most. Are you going to build night time solar next?

Forest through the trees. The grid, worldwide, is currently 60% fossil fuels. That’s rapidly decreasing due to pure economics. Those economics dictate that EVs are ideally positioned to take advantage of renewables at 1/10 the cost (or less) of gasoline: their built-in storage combined with an average commute of 40 miles means they can charge every few days on demand when power is cheapest. Because this is driven by economics it will happen. Every major manufacture realizes this and have discontinued nearly all ICE engine development and put billions behind EVs because of it.

I haven’t said a thing about CO2 (beyond calling out your flawed calcs ignoring well to wheels)- that’s another tree you’d rather stare at while you tilt at windmills. And while you’re doing everything you can to tilt the field to support your view (charge only on fossil fuels, compare only to the most efficient ICE cars) the forest springs up all around you. Argue all you want, EVs will make up ~50% share of new US passenger car sales by the end of the decade and be powered by less than 50% fossil fuels. Tell me I’m wrong.

You’re familiar with real-time grid price fluctuations but unfamiliar with long term PPA prices. You’re in a medium solar resource, low wind resource area (negative pricing due to wind in the Midwest not top of mind). You’re not a design engineer, not forward looking so not in planning… Not real time pricing but connected to preparing for day ahead selling to Cal ISO when the prices are right. Feels a bit like operations.

 

[dammitdana]

I love my new car. Honest discussion? Whoa... headed around a curve while husband was driving. I was playing w infotainment and accidentally threw the thing into NEUTRAL while he had his foot on the gas because I spun the wrong dial. Happy I had him take his foot off of the gas when I recognized what I had done. Would love to see that RND dial disabled over 10mph via some sort of update.

 

[PetevB]

I love my new car. Honest discussion? Whoa... headed around a curve while husband was driving. I was playing w infotainment and accidentally threw the thing into NEUTRAL while he had his foot on the gas because I spun the wrong dial. Happy I had him take his foot off of the gas when I recognized what I had done. Would love to see that RND dial disabled over 10mph via some sort of update.

Good post, real issue. Unfortunately given some real life “unintended acceleration” horror stories I could not support taking away the ability to disengage drive in an emergency.
Link

 

[dammitdana]

!!! Totally valid point PetevB... Thinking of workarounds on how to make the action more intentional, less passenger FU&K-uppable. Red tape? Two button neutral?

Also found out that I can't move the car AT ALL if my driver door is open to move forward or backward. I want to be in control. What if I CAN'T close my driver door due to a circumstance? Hard to determine if the operator or the car is in charge.

(Case in point - I backed into my spot, had a huge plant in my door upon opening and wanted to roll forward a couple of inches to avoid the situation - couldn't even roll forward in neutral two inches because car says NO. No neutral, no drive... door is open - car says party foul.)

 

[EdP]

!!! Totally valid point PetevB... Thinking of workarounds on how to make the action more intentional, less passenger FU&K-uppable. Red tape? Two button neutral?

Also found out that I can't move the car AT ALL if my driver door is open to move forward or backward. I want to be in control. What if I CAN'T close my driver door due to a circumstance? Hard to determine if the operator or the car is in charge.

(Case in point - I backed into my spot, had a huge plant in my door upon opening and wanted to roll forward a couple of inches to avoid the situation - couldn't even roll forward in neutral two inches because car says NO. No neutral, no drive... door is open - car says party foul.)

Safety. Saw a video yesterday of a guy that had the door of his pickup open and he ran over his foot. Now, he was an idiot for getting out but. . . .

Oh. my friend that had the door open a bit and wanted to move his Jaguar back a bit. You don't do that when still partly in the garage. Gets expensive.

 

[csu87]

We won't be seeing any electric F-150's in Montana or other parts of the wide open west where 200 mile daily drives are common. Its's just not going to happen and there's no reason it should. The USA could reduce it's "carbon footprint" by 50% but China, India, Mexico and others could care less. Kind of like washing one side of you face.

This is exactly why I havent gone with an EV truck yet. The chargers just arent available in my area and where I drive to make it easy to charge and make sure I am charged. Add to it that I actually use my truck like a truck (towing/hauling a lot), and the range takes a significant hit when doing that.

Until charging infrastructure is more widespread into rural areas, it is going to be a long time before EV is a viable option for a lot of the country.

As for the renewable energy discussion, I'll say this. I have built several Hydro-power facilities and a couple solar power facilities in conjunction with water infrastructure. A vast majority of the time, they dont make sense over conventional power generation, RIGHT NOW. They are still not as cost effective and efficient as they seem. The only reason they have been used to power the plants ive built, is to allow the municipality to increase rates because "green". Payback periods in almost every instance is longer than actual lifecycle of the equipment. Until the storage of energy is figured out to make it able to store the energy generated at a reasonable cost, it wont overtake fossil-fuels and wont eliminate the need for fossil-fuels.

 

[Chad86tsi]

Forest through the trees. The grid, worldwide, is currently 60% fossil fuels. That’s rapidly decreasing due to pure economics. Those economics dictate that EVs are ideally positioned to take advantage of renewables at 1/10 the cost (or less) of gasoline: their built-in storage combined with an average commute of 40 miles means they can charge every few days on demand when power is cheapest. Because this is driven by economics it will happen. Every major manufacture realizes this and have discontinued nearly all ICE engine development and put billions behind EVs because of it.

but they don't charge when it's cheapest. Sounds great until you look at the actual behavior, which as you said is : Typically today that’s (for them) at night. Where does night time power come from? If EVs are ideally positioned to take advantage of renewables, what renewables are they taking advantage of at night?

I haven’t said a thing about CO2 (beyond calling out your flawed calcs ignoring well to wheels)- that’s another tree you’d rather stare at while you tilt at windmills. And while you’re doing everything you can to tilt the field to support your view (charge only on fossil fuels, compare only to the most efficient ICE cars) the forest springs up all around you. Argue all you want, EVs will make up ~50% share of new US passenger car sales by the end of the decade and be powered by less than 50% fossil fuels. Tell me I’m wrong.

Others discussed C02, and many believe in pushing us all in this direction because of C02, not realizing EV's still create C02, in some cases on par with existing ICE's. If we are doing this for "reasons" the reasons ought to be correct and well understood.

How will we get to less than 50% fossil fuels when the sun is down? What is the plan? I've seen plans (that I can't divulge) that are 5, 10, 20 some years out. We won't "get there" with those plans. Those plans are all wind and solar because it's cheap energy and the payback makes sense. Still doesn't solve when the sun is down and the wind isn't blowing. The only new tech that has promise is new nuclear with "liquid salt storage". It's being retrofitted to decommissioned coal plants. It's about a decade away (being prototyped now). it will be several decades before capacity can be increased where we need it to be.

I won't be surprised if we get to 50% new cars being EV, and would actually be surprised if it were not at that%. But many will be surprised to learn (if they ever listen) that when they charge their EV at night, it's being filled with dirty power. There is a disconnect between clean power and EV's. EV's will mean burning natural gas instead of gasoline and Diesel. You can already buy natural gas cars. EV's are the future, but they are not the solution (yet).

You’re familiar with real-time grid price fluctuations but unfamiliar with long term PPA prices. You’re in a medium solar resource, low wind resource area (negative pricing due to wind in the Midwest not top of mind). You’re not a design engineer, not forward looking so not in planning… Not real time pricing but connected to preparing for day ahead selling to Cal ISO when the prices are right. Feels a bit like operations.

I am familiar with what the grid can and cannot do due to current design, physics, available technology, and the complex load it has to serve. The EV push is going to alter the load (adversely), and while there are more new clean sources entering the supply side, they aren't entering it for long stable predictable spans of time. They are the most unstable source we have. They also require "spinning reserve", where will that come from? We are forcing the grid to become unreliable/unstable. EV adoption is going to speed this up, and the solution hasn't been invented yet.

Cost doesn't dictate what laws of physics we follow. That mid day cost is low is great, what does that do for us when it's dark out? We can charge these EV's during the day, but how? Where? Who will pay for that? It will take decades to catch up to this "opportunity", Until then?...