Electric Car Adoption Estimates

[krikorr]

FYI, here's a copy of my reply to the question, why aren't thee more EVs in the USA?
Electrically powered vehicles are what is known as a disruptive technology as are were the Internet, PC’s and cell phones. Experience has shown any disruptive technology will have to overcome resistance on two fronts. First is the reluctance of people to change basic elements of their lives (there is nothing easier to use than what you already know). Second is the resistance of the technologies being replaced. It takes a while for these resistances to be overcome. Some of the factors impacting the time it takes to overcome the resistance are: how steep is the learning curve, the cost of adoption, the perceived benefit, Government support/opposition, and the financial, political, and social power of the technologies being disrupted. Adoption usually follows the "hockey stick" graph. A long period of low adoption and then a period of rapid (sometimes geometric) adoption. But can something as fundamental to our society as the ICE powered car be replaced? Here are two pictures which show you the same portion of 5th Ave, NYC some 13 years apart. The 1900 picture contains only one discernable 1 horseless carriage.

5th Avenue, NYC Easter 1900

5th Avenue, NYC Easter 1913
Just 13 years later, the same location shows only one horse drawn carriage!

I think the graph below, prepared by the US Dept of Energy, indicates we have entered the phase of rapid EV adoption. Notice the steep rise from ~2% to ~6% in EV sales between12/20 and 12/22. Many estimates predict the EV share of new cars and light trucks sold in the US by 2030 will be between 35% - 65%. If that estimate is accurate, around 5-million EVs will be sold in 2030 in the US.

Electric Car Adoption Estimates

 

[EdP]

FYI, here's a copy of my reply to the question, why aren't thee more EVs in the USA?
Electrically powered vehicles are what is known as a disruptive technology as are were the Internet, PC’s and cell phones. Experience has shown any disruptive technology will have to overcome resistance on two fronts. First is the reluctance of people to change basic elements of their lives (there is nothing easier to use than what you already know). Second is the resistance of the technologies being replaced. It takes a while for these resistances to be overcome. Some of the factors impacting the time it takes to overcome the resistance are: how steep is the learning curve, the cost of adoption, the perceived benefit, Government support/opposition, and the financial, political, and social power of the technologies being disrupted. Adoption usually follows the "hockey stick" graph. A long period of low adoption and then a period of rapid (sometimes geometric) adoption. But can something as fundamental to our society as the ICE powered car be replaced? Here are two pictures which show you the same portion of 5th Ave, NYC some 13 years apart. The 1900 picture contains only one discernable 1 horseless carriage.

5th Avenue, NYC Easter 1900

5th Avenue, NYC Easter 1913
Just 13 years later, the same location shows only one horse drawn carriage!

I think the graph below, prepared by the US Dept of Energy, indicates we have entered the phase of rapid EV adoption. Notice the steep rise from ~2% to ~6% in EV sales between12/20 and 12/22. Many estimates predict the EV share of new cars and light trucks sold in the US by 2030 will be between 35% - 65%. If that estimate is accurate, around 5-million EVs will be sold in 2030 in the US.

Electric Car Adoption Estimates

Just bought a new car a month ago. No, not electric. Right now, it does not suite my needs but will in the future.

My reasons? I take a couple of trips a year so an EV would be fine for 46 weeks but not so much on the rest. This will change in the future and things are in the works already. On my recen 3440 mile trip, it would require about 18 stops to charge. Day one, I drove 980 miles. At about 230 miles a chage, not so easy. Some days, little driving, not a problem, but then a 300 mile day. and no place to charge where I was staying for a few days. Then a 700 mile day. Then a 120 mile day and stopover and yes, two chargers not used during my stay. Last day, about 670 miles and just wanted to get home, not sit for two hours charging.

What will change? There are batteries in the works with 600 mile range. Chargers will give you 80% in about 10 minutes. That is a major change.

If I had two cars, yes one would be an EV. Retired now, but when I was working, a charge at home a couple of times a week would be all I'd need for a 50 mile round trip.

Big cities are still a problem. I lived in a fairly common neighborhood in Philadelphia years ago. When you came home, you never knew where you'd park for the night so home charging is impossible. Can you imagine calling home: "Hi honey, on my way home but have toc harge and three cars in front of me, just hold dinner for a few hours" That will be overcome in a few years with long range and fast charging.

Five years will be revolutionary and EV will be much more practical. Our great granparents had to stop at harware stores and drug stores for fuel. Things eventually changed and will again.

 

[nwhit]

Norway has shown that things can move significantly faster if there is a desire to make it happen. Remarkable what they’ve accomplished in so very short a time.

 

[krikorr]

Norway has shown that things can move significantly faster if there is a desire to make it happen. Remarkable what they’ve accomplished in so very short a time.

Yes they have and their grid didn't collapse. But the average Norwegian drives < 8,000 miles/yr. So range is less of an inhibitor then it is in the US.

 

[krikorr]

Just bought a new car a month ago. No, not electric. Right now, it does not suite my needs but will in the future.

My reasons? I take a couple of trips a year so an EV would be fine for 46 weeks but not so much on the rest. This will change in the future and things are in the works already. On my recen 3440 mile trip, it would require about 18 stops to charge. Day one, I drove 980 miles. At about 230 miles a chage, not so easy. Some days, little driving, not a problem, but then a 300 mile day. and no place to charge where I was staying for a few days. Then a 700 mile day. Then a 120 mile day and stopover and yes, two chargers not used during my stay. Last day, about 670 miles and just wanted to get home, not sit for two hours charging.

What will change? There are batteries in the works with 600 mile range. Chargers will give you 80% in about 10 minutes. That is a major change.

If I had two cars, yes one would be an EV. Retired now, but when I was working, a charge at home a couple of times a week would be all I'd need for a 50 mile round trip.

Big cities are still a problem. I lived in a fairly common neighborhood in Philadelphia years ago. When you came home, you never knew where you'd park for the night so home charging is impossible. Can you imagine calling home: "Hi honey, on my way home but have toc harge and three cars in front of me, just hold dinner for a few hours" That will be overcome in a few years with long range and fast charging.

Five years will be revolutionary and EV will be much more practical. Our great granparents had to stop at harware stores and drug stores for fuel. Things eventually changed and will again.

Thanks for the feedback. In your place with only my GB70EV, I would have rented an ICE car for the vacation trip.

That Hyundai 80% in 10 minutes claim is more hype than fact. Yes it can be done under ideal conditions but, according to PlugShare, there are fewer than 300 350kw charging locations in the entire US. Yes it's a real bummer for people who do not have off street parking.
The link How can people who live in flats install electric vehicle chargers? explains how the UK is addressing that problem.

 

[Crito]

Charging machines don't take cash and most require an app. So you need a bank account, debit card and a smart phone to use an EV. I don't need any of those things with a gas car. And public charging during peak hours in summer is actually MORE EXPENSIVE than gas. Do the math yourself and see.

For me with a house near a major metro area though, an EV was perfect. The maintenance interval for EVs is 20,000 miles even if you drive ~5 miles a day like me. I'd have to change the oil in a gas car four times. And if I charge at home during off peak hours 300 miles of range costs me about $4. Heck, if I bought a Fisker Ocean with a solar roof I might not ever have to plug in. That's pretty cool.

 

[EdP]

Charging machines don't take cash and most require an app. So you need a bank account, debit card and a smart phone to use an EV. I don't need any of those things with a gas car. And public charging during peak hours in summer is actually MORE EXPENSIVE than gas. Do the math yourself and see.

Did the math and even found some free ones.
No difference here

Pricing and Plans for EV Charging | Electrify America

Electrify America aims to keep prices low while providing more electric vehicle chargers, with faster speeds, in better locations across the U.S. Learn about our pricing.

www.electrifyamerica.com

Flat rate here

Charging station - Full Details | ChargeHub

ChargeHub Charging Station Detail Page.

chargehub.com

Good rate here, does not change with the time

Green Transportation and Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging | St. Pete Beach, FL

Information on the EV parking options located in the City of St. Pete Beach

www.stpetebeach.org

I guess you can still buy gas with cash though. I did it many years ago.

 

[Crito]

Did the math and even found some free ones.
No difference here

It's pretty obvious you don't own an EV. You're gonna pay 40-50 cents per kilowatt hour during peak hours plus a session fee plus maybe an idle fee. Free charging is almost always level 2 which is REALLY going to increase the travel time for your road trip, by like days. LOL

Here's an example from a recent visit to an EVgo 50kW charger. My battery is 100 kWh and I get 3 miles per kWh so the math is easy. That's 22% charge for $12. $1 is a session fee, so that's exactly 50 cents per kWh. $51 for 300 miles. A gas car that gets 25 miles per $3.50 gallon would cost $42 for same 300 miles. But thanks for playing.

 

[krikorr]

Charging machines don't take cash and most require an app. So you need a bank account, debit card and a smart phone to use an EV. I don't need any of those things with a gas car. And public charging during peak hours in summer is actually MORE EXPENSIVE than gas. Do the math yourself and see.

For me with a house near a major metro area though, an EV was perfect. The maintenance interval for EVs is 20,000 miles even if you drive ~5 miles a day like me. I'd have to change the oil in a gas car four times. And if I charge at home during off peak hours 300 miles of range costs me about $4. Heck, if I bought a Fisker Ocean with a solar roof I might not ever have to plug in. That's pretty cool.

Are you serious? If you have a car, you almost certainly have a bank account, and smart phone, and credit card. You don't buy a car and suddenly need these things. Cash is a vestige of habit and not a necessity in developed countries.

 

[EdP]

It's pretty obvious you don't own an EV. You're gonna pay 40-50 cents per kilowatt hour during peak hours plus a session fee plus maybe an idle fee. Free charging is almost always level 2 which is REALLY going to increase the travel time for your road trip, by like days. LOL

Here's an example from a recent visit to an EVgo 50kW charger. My battery is 100 kWh and I get 3 miles per kWh so the math is easy. That's 22% charge for $12. $1 is a session fee, so that's exactly 50 cents per kWh. $51 for 300 miles. A gas car that gets 25 miles per $3.50 gallon would cost $42 for same 300 miles. But thanks for playing.
View attachment 54169

You show one example of peak time. The ones I found had no variation on time. Perhaps you should shop around more.
Yes, level 2 takes longer, but the need for speed varies with circumstances. Are you enjoying a meal at a nice rastaurant? Stopping at a hotel for the night? Much different that having to get someplace 400 miles away.

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[krikorr]

It's pretty obvious you don't own an EV. You're gonna pay 40-50 cents per kilowatt hour during peak hours plus a session fee plus maybe an idle fee. Free charging is almost always level 2 which is REALLY going to increase the travel time for your road trip, by like days. LOL

Here's an example from a recent visit to an EVgo 50kW charger. My battery is 100 kWh and I get 3 miles per kWh so the math is easy. That's 22% charge for $12. $1 is a session fee, so that's exactly 50 cents per kWh. $51 for 300 miles. A gas car that gets 25 miles per $3.50 gallon would cost $42 for same 300 miles. But thanks for playing.
View attachment 54169

I don't understand your logic or your math. You say you own your own home and an EQE. Don't you use your level 2 home charger 90% of the time? I use public charging when I'm traveling but for day to day travel I use my Level 2 Home charger. My fully burdened (adding all the extra taxes, etc.) cost per kwh is $0.12. so 100 x .12 = $12.
An ICE Mercedes E class requires high test gas which is currently $4.29. A new E class gets 26 mph (EPA highway/city est). So it would cost 300/26= 11.54 gallons @ $4.29 or $49.50. The Mercedes EQE cost for 300 miles is 75% less than the equivalent Mercedes ICE.

 

[SuperKing]

Two motivating factors in the adoption of anything are cost and convenience. Originally, EV's were the dominant vehicles but two things happened... the invention of the electric starter and a petroleum byproduct called gasoline. Shortly after, the EV went extinct for like 100 years... lol

Nobody has a problem with the internal combustion engine, they have a problem with the fuel it uses. If someone finds a clean burning fuel that's cheap enough, we could see EV's disappear again. Maybe it doesn't even have to be a clean fuel, it could be a new method in producing gasoline from the carbon in the air instead of from oil like what Porsche's doing with their synthetic gasoline. That would make it carbon neutral or even carbon negative if we produce more gasoline than we use. Porsche's proven that it works, just have to see if it's scalable enough to make it cheap.

 

[krikorr]

Two motivating factors in the adoption of anything are cost and convenience. Originally, EV's were the dominant vehicles but two things happened... the invention of the electric starter and a petroleum byproduct called gasoline. Shortly after, the EV went extinct for like 100 years... lol

Nobody has a problem with the internal combustion engine, they have a problem with the fuel it uses. If someone finds a clean burning fuel that's cheap enough, we could see EV's disappear again. Maybe it doesn't even have to be a clean fuel, it could be a new method in producing gasoline from the carbon in the air instead of from oil like what Porsche's doing with their synthetic gasoline. That would make it carbon neutral or even carbon negative if we produce more gasoline than we use. Porsche's proven that it works, just have to see if it's scalable enough to make it cheap.

I have learned to be very careful when using words like “everybody” “nobody” “always “ and “never”.
Your first sentence suffers greatly because it’s obviously false that nobody has a problem with the ICE. It’s notoriously inefficient and complicated. Could synfuel be the answer? Possibly but not probable. My former employer worked for a number of years on synfuel and could never come close to a cost competitive scalable solution. In reference to the Exxon/Porsche statement, here’s a quote from Porsche,”The electrification of our vehicles is of highest priority to us,” said Michael Steiner, Member of the Executive Board, Research and Development of Porsche. “eFuels are a good complement to our powertrain strategy. They allow our customers to drive EXISTING cars with conventional combustion engines as well as plug-in hybrids with significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions.”
So Porsche is not trying to replace EVs w synfuel.

“Maybe it doesn’t even have to be a clean fuel. “ is astounding! The health toll from burning gasoline is well documented and the danger we face from CO2’s impact on the environment is a proven fact.

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