Genesis is at a Tipping point?

[srobak]

You keep telling yourself that.

The demand is way down from 6, 12 and 18 months ago. This is indisputable - even by you. Even with the insanely massive rebates being served on the silver platters they are - people just aren't buying them as much as they were when they were first being told that the sky was falling and that they had to and the downward trend is continuing. Used values have fallen through the floor as well - as another user has posted - and those aren't being scooped up, either. Until ranges and cold-weather performance take a significant increase and pricing takes a significant decrease - there will not be widespread adoption and it will remain niche - regardless what regulators want to do. We also need to have started building nuke plants again 5 years ago to support that kind of adoption.

If you saw my re-hi thread in the lounge you will note that we took out an EV9 for an extended test not too long ago. It checked the boxes in many respects - and certainly gave big smiles in sport mode. But the most important box it could not check was range. It could have come dripped in gold - but without decent range it is a non-starter. Especially since it was quite enjoyable to drive - which would just make piling the miles on that much easier. There is no excuse for a vehicle that large to have such a short range - especially when something like the Lucid Air can approach 400 miles while lighting the pavement ablaze. Consequently - we got the Palisade Calligraphy - essentially a GV80 in different clothing, and with a lot more money left in the bank. We will see where things stand on the EV & infrastructure front in another 5 years or so... but I am not holding my breath.

Both in the UK and Europe ever increasing legislation leading to a total ban for new ICE cars, dictates where the future is going.

They tried that here in the states. It isn't just limited to EVs, either. It's on just about everything. So many do-gooder legislative initiatives have backfired so spectacularly at local, state and federal levels with the end result being a walking-back or even complete reversals over the past 5 years it will make your head spin. The harshness of reality often sets in on these (often whackadoo) pie-in-the-sky policies after a few years when the net effect is actually observed - and it drops a big, fat egg on the faces of those who shove the policies down the public's throat. Of course by then they have somehow managed to seal their place in the elite stronghold and it requires a massive, public upheaval and legal action in order to usurp those folks from their platinum pedestals. Either way - there is more often than not a reversal, softening, outright ignoring of, or consciously not enforcing of such policies and laws.

Personally - I think the rampant adoption and throat-ramming of these types of legislation and policies needs to go through a gate-kept, research trial via practical application testing before it goes into production. No more theory and whiteboarding while promising unicorns and rainbows supported by nothing more than outsourced marketing consultancy fees and bills which is then pushed onto the 6 o-clock news like it was gospel. Build a practical, real-world utilization based test environment, deploy, monitor and record the statistics and impact over a period of 3 to 5 years. If it can't pass the requirements, meet the expectations and promises - then it gets rejected. Back to the drawing board - this time armed with real-world data - and try again. This approach would have saved so much time, effort, energy and lives over the past 5-10 years - and runs the gamut from EVs to criminal justice reform to decriminalization of drugs, to taxes, to medical coverage, to veteran's benefits, to homeless, to employment, to vaccines, to immigration, to gas furnaces, to light bulbs (remember CFLs?), to bottled water to offshoring, to killing nuke plants, to demilitarization, to.... the list endlessly goes on. As a country - our politicians like to test on the live environment, rather than in an isolated instance & far away from those it would have the most negative impact on if it fails. More often than not - it does, and people end up hurt or otherwise paying the price as a result. That crap needs to stop. But that's for another thread.

My point is - no matter how aggressive your politicians might be with some of this stuff - reality will rear it's head in time - and just like here you will see a softening or walking back on some of it to varying degrees. There literally isn't another possible outcome.

 

[EdP]

The demand is way down from 6, 12 and 18 months ago. This is indisputable - even by you. Even with the insanely massive rebates being served on the silver platters they are - people just aren't buying them as much as they were when they were first being told that the sky was falling and that they had to and the downward trend is continuing. Used values have fallen through the floor as well - as another user has posted - and those aren't being scooped up, either. Until ranges and cold-weather performance take a significant increase and pricing takes a significant decrease - there will not be widespread adoption and it will remain niche - regardless what regulators want to do. We also need to have started building nuke plants again 5 years ago to support that kind of adoption.

It will come back in time. Some of the drop is from a lot of bad publicity this winter. Much of it was not the fault of the car, but lack of planning by owners. The lines as charging stations was like gas stations had in bad weather. Responsible people watch the weather and plan.

There are better batteries in the works, but probably a few years before we see it in large production. Range on them is more than the typical ICE car. More charging stations will be available. More solar power.

I just saw something that Musk says a grid of 127 miles by 127 miles can produce all the electricity the US needs.

 

[Husky]

The demand is way down from 6, 12 and 18 months ago. This is indisputable - even by you. Even with the insanely massive rebates being served on the silver platters they are - people just aren't buying them as much as they were when they were first being told that the sky was falling and that they had to and the downward trend is continuing. Used values have fallen through the floor as well - as another user has posted - and those aren't being scooped up, either. Until ranges and cold-weather performance take a significant increase and pricing takes a significant decrease - there will not be widespread adoption and it will remain niche - regardless what regulators want to do. We also need to have started building nuke plants again 5 years ago to support that kind of adoption.

If you saw my re-hi thread in the lounge you will note that we took out an EV9 for an extended test not too long ago. It checked the boxes in many respects - and certainly gave big smiles in sport mode. But the most important box it could not check was range. It could have come dripped in gold - but without decent range it is a non-starter. Especially since it was quite enjoyable to drive - which would just make piling the miles on that much easier. There is no excuse for a vehicle that large to have such a short range - especially when something like the Lucid Air can approach 400 miles while lighting the pavement ablaze. Consequently - we got the Palisade Calligraphy - essentially a GV80 in different clothing, and with a lot more money left in the bank. We will see where things stand on the EV & infrastructure front in another 5 years or so... but I am not holding my breath.



They tried that here in the states. It isn't just limited to EVs, either. It's on just about everything. So many do-gooder legislative initiatives have backfired so spectacularly at local, state and federal levels with the end result being a walking-back or even complete reversals over the past 5 years it will make your head spin. The harshness of reality often sets in on these (often whackadoo) pie-in-the-sky policies after a few years when the net effect is actually observed - and it drops a big, fat egg on the faces of those who shove the policies down the public's throat. Of course by then they have somehow managed to seal their place in the elite stronghold and it requires a massive, public upheaval and legal action in order to usurp those folks from their platinum pedestals. Either way - there is more often than not a reversal, softening, outright ignoring of, or consciously not enforcing of such policies and laws.

Personally - I think the rampant adoption and throat-ramming of these types of legislation and policies needs to go through a gate-kept, research trial via practical application testing before it goes into production. No more theory and whiteboarding while promising unicorns and rainbows supported by nothing more than outsourced marketing consultancy fees and bills which is then pushed onto the 6 o-clock news like it was gospel. Build a practical, real-world utilization based test environment, deploy, monitor and record the statistics and impact over a period of 3 to 5 years. If it can't pass the requirements, meet the expectations and promises - then it gets rejected. Back to the drawing board - this time armed with real-world data - and try again. This approach would have saved so much time, effort, energy and lives over the past 5-10 years - and runs the gamut from EVs to criminal justice reform to decriminalization of drugs, to taxes, to medical coverage, to veteran's benefits, to homeless, to employment, to vaccines, to immigration, to gas furnaces, to light bulbs (remember CFLs?), to bottled water to offshoring, to killing nuke plants, to demilitarization, to.... the list endlessly goes on. As a country - our politicians like to test on the live environment, rather than in an isolated instance & far away from those it would have the most negative impact on if it fails. More often than not - it does, and people end up hurt or otherwise paying the price as a result. That crap needs to stop. But that's for another thread.

My point is - no matter how aggressive your politicians might be with some of this stuff - reality will rear it's head in time - and just like here you will see a softening or walking back on some of it to varying degrees. There literally isn't another possible outcome.

EV sales actually continue to increase. It is the RATE of the increase that is down. There's a difference.

 

[Volfy]

EV sales actually continue to increase. It is the RATE of the increase that is down. There's a difference.

May be, but the signs are ominous nonetheless. Sales of EVs in Q1 2024 rose 2.6% year over year, but that was well below the previous two years (15.5% 2023 and 20.4% 2022). This despite a whole lot more mfrs introducing new EV models into the marketplace. What this means is that there are not a whole lot more new EV converts coming into the segment. Other mfrs' newer entries are simply cannibalizing Tesla sales, which plunged in every metric you can measure - annual sales volume, Quarter to quarter, market share - despite hefty price reductions to stop the hemorrhaging.

The overall picture for other mfrs entering the fray is not encouraging either. Most of them drank the EV coolaid and invested billions only to be met with lukewarm sales and huge losses. Many are frantically repurposing billions in EV R&D already squandered towards hybrid models instead.

The only bright spot is in continued strong growth of the luxury EV segment. This is indicative that for a lot of buyers, EVs continue to be a discretionary lifestyle purchase. Those who buy them want an EV, not because they need an EV.

For the vast majority of car buyers, for whom cars are a basic transportation necessity, convincing them to buy EV instead is proving difficult. And understandably so.

Now I do hear a lot of folks saying this EV sales slump is just temporary, and that the strong growth will eventually return. However, I've yet to hear any of them provide a solid reason why the market dynamic will shift. What is it that will change buyers' mind and make them go googoo gaga over EVs? And if that something will prove so compelling, why is it currently absent?

The only force I see that might help EV sales is a sharp rise in gasoline prices. Even then, the conversion rate likely wouldn't be all that spectacular, as there are always alternatives, like choosing more fuel-efficient ICE vehicles, and hybrids.

Legislation to coerce EV adoption might be another, but politicians know full well that giving $$ incentives to buy EVs is one thing, forcing folks to buy what they don't want is quite another. Trying to cut off ICE vehicles from the supply side, while demand remains overwhelmingly strong is fraught with problems, and ultimately doomed to failure.

Personally, I subscribe to Honda chairman Akio Toyoda's assessment that, without a fundamental improvement to their usability/practicality, EV's penetration will flat line at 30%. They have their place in the automotive world, but worthy of replacing ICE entirely they are not.

 

[Husky]

I think there are a few things that will accelerate EV sales. All of these are being worked on.

1. More / better selection of EVs in the $30k to $40k price range.

2. Better charging infrastructure, with more chargers in more locations and fewer that are out of service.

3. Newer battery technology that will increase range and hopefully further reduce cost.

 

[Volfy]

I think there are a few things that will accelerate EV sales. All of these are being worked on.

1. More / better selection of EVs in the $30k to $40k price range.

2. Better charging infrastructure, with more chargers in more locations and fewer that are out of service.

3. Newer battery technology that will increase range and hopefully further reduce cost.

1. There are already 11 EVs under $40k. Same reasons that keep folks from buying them now will still act as barriers when there are 40 EVs under $40k. Besides, traditional mfrs are diverting their attention towards hybrids. That is where the money is right now. New EV-only makers like Lucid/Rivian don't yet have the economies of scale to turn a profit on $75k EVs right now and can ill-afford to waste money on cheap EVs. They will likely focus on luxury EVs, which are selling.

2. This isn't going to improve any time soon. EVs sales and charging station expansion go hand in hand. Musk just fired his whole supercharging team, because Tesla is bleeding red ink badly. This might give the other charging station companies an opportunity to break into Tesla's dominance. Then again, none of them are going to want to invest billions, unless EV adoption accelerates. Classic chicken or egg scenario. I highly doubt tech investors are all that bullish on supercharging networks right now.

3. This is an even longer term prospect than widespread charging stations. Solid state and other battery tech will certainly continued to get R&D'ed, but fat chance they'll arrive soon enough to pull EV sales out of its current slump.

 

[Husky]

We'll have to agree to disagree.

1. I haven't counted them, but if it's even 11, that may not leave some buyers with the car/features that they want. I think when/if Rivian releases their new R2 and R3 (presumably in a year and a half), for example, they will be popular and appeal to buyers who don't have a good EV option right now.

2. There are new charging stations being installed daily, across the country, so it is in fact improving as we speak. The Tesla debacle has little effect on most non-Tesla EV drivers.

3. Agreed; significantly better batteries are likely at least a few years away.

I was looking a little more long term than the next couple of months.

 

[Volfy]

We'll have to agree to disagree.

But of course!

My concern is that if this slump lasts for a good while, the incredible momentum that Tesla has built up will be lost. Once that happens and Tesla's empire building begins to crumble, folks are not going to look at EVs in the same messianic light ever again. That aura of an unstoppable EV revolution and the much ballyhooed prediction of the internal combustion engine's impending demise will evaporate.

Without that promise of an insatiably expanding market, the traditional automakers won't be so quick to drink the coolaid again. Likewise, governments around the world that moved quickly to justify an aggressive schedule to outlaw ICE will need to re-evaluate their stance on the matter, lest they wish to irk the ire of the general populace (read voters) unwilling to buy EVs.

I'm not against EV. I do still believe it has a place in the automotive landscape, albeit a more limited one than Musk and the EV zealots have pumped it up to be.

 

[Husky]

Another possible reason that EV sales aren't growing as quickly as they had been is the increase in the number of hybrids and PHEVs that have come out (and continue to) in just the last couple of years. They are cheaper (surprisingly, given their added complexity) and represent a nice compromise, providing better gas mileage and lower emissions (excepting a few performance-oriented cars) than a pure ICE vehicle while alleviating any concerns over range, and appeal to consumers who don't want to have to do the extra planning when taking a long trip.

 

[Husky]

But of course!

My concern is that if this slump lasts for a good while, the incredible momentum that Tesla has built up will be lost. Once that happens and Tesla's empire building begins to crumble, folks are not going to look at EVs in the same messianic light ever again. That aura of an unstoppable EV revolution and the much ballyhooed prediction of the internal combustion engine's impending demise will evaporate.

Without that promise of an insatiably expanding market, the traditional automakers won't be so quick to drink the coolaid again. Likewise, governments around the world that moved quickly to justify an aggressive schedule to outlaw ICE will need to re-evaluate their stance on the matter, lest they wish to irk the ire of the general populace (read voters) unwilling to buy EVs.

I'm not against EV. I do still believe it has a place in the automotive landscape, albeit a more limited one than Musk and the EV zealots have pumped it up to be.

I hear you, but I'm more optimistic. I think the momentum that already exists, the huge investments that have been made, and the ability of technology to continuously (and rapidly) improve and resolve technical hurdles will keep your EV "doomsday" scenario from happening (not to mention the pressure of rapid global climate change that is the driving force behind the government actions, though you may not agree).
To some extent, the toothpaste is out of the tube. There are millions of satisfied EV drivers who have tasted the future.
Time will tell!

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[Volfy]

Another possible reason that EV sales aren't growing as quickly as they had been is the increase in the number of hybrids and PHEVs that have come out (and continue to) in just the last couple of years. They are cheaper (surprisingly, given their added complexity) and represent a nice compromise, providing better gas mileage and lower emissions (excepting a few performance-oriented cars) than a pure ICE vehicle while alleviating any concerns over range, and appeal to consumers who don't want to have to do the extra planning when taking a long trip.

The fact that hybrids are growing in popularity should tell you what the general car buying public needs. Those of us who are homeowners can easily install a dedicated EV charger in our garage. When all you need to do is to plug it in and let it charge overnight, it is very appealing ,instead of stopping by gas stations periodically.

However, a very large % of car owners live in apartments and condos that don't have a garage. Some inner cities residents even have to park on the street. It's precisely why EV ownership in places like NYC is dismal, even though the usage case couldn't be more suited to EVs. All of them will have to rely on public charging stations. Imaging somebody's daughter or wife or elderly mom having to sit in an empty parking lot, at night, for an hour or more, waiting for the car to charge. Yeah... not so appealing now, is it?

You think I'd let me daughter drive an EV when she go off to college? F* no!

 

[EdP]

But of course!

My concern is that if this slump lasts for a good while, the incredible momentum that Tesla has built up will be lost. Once that happens and Tesla's empire building begins to crumble, folks are not going to look at EVs in the same messianic light ever again. That aura of an unstoppable EV revolution and the much ballyhooed prediction of the internal combustion engine's impending demise will evaporate.

Is Tesla a good indicator to follow?
Model S is nice. Model 3 and Model Y are ugly. (my opinion) Quality reputation is not very good. Musk has followers and detractors that affect opinions of potential customers. I've only seen one Cyber Truck and it is strange. I see no reason for it to exist, other than some want something different.

My next car will be an EV, it will not be a Tesla. Sure, I'm only one opinionated person, but the future of Tesla rides on its reputation with the general public. There are other options.

 

[steveinarizona]

Is Tesla a good indicator to follow?
Model S is nice. Model 3 and Model Y are ugly. (my opinion) Quality reputation is not very good. Musk has followers and detractors that affect opinions of potential customers. I've only seen one Cyber Truck and it is strange. I see no reason for it to exist, other than some want something different.

My next car will be an EV, it will not be a Tesla. Sure, I'm only one opinionated person, but the future of Tesla rides on its reputation with the general public. There are other options.

I agree. Leaving Musk aside, Unless one gets the old tech S or X, one has to look sideways to see how fast one is going, the speed limit, etc. No buttons or switches. On the other hand, my GV60P has lots of buttons, a display in front of me AND a headup display. Tesla demands that you take the car their way, god forbid that they offer options (such as a HUD).

I love my GV60P and can't see any reason to go for a Tesla besides charging and that is not a problem for me.

 

[Volfy]

Is Tesla a good indicator to follow?
Model S is nice. Model 3 and Model Y are ugly. (my opinion) Quality reputation is not very good. Musk has followers and detractors that affect opinions of potential customers. I've only seen one Cyber Truck and it is strange. I see no reason for it to exist, other than some want something different.

My next car will be an EV, it will not be a Tesla. Sure, I'm only one opinionated person, but the future of Tesla rides on its reputation with the general public. There are other options.

Like it or not, Tesla is the 800 lbs gorilla of the EV world. I'm far from a fan of Musk, but there is no denying he built Tesla to be the dominant EV force it is today. Detroit has farted around with electric vehicles since my high school days and couldn't sell enough in 25 yrs to buy boardroom toilet paper to wipe their collective ass.

If it weren't for Musk and Tesla, none of you would be buying your beautiful EVs today. As it is, Tesla's fortune foretells the rest of the EV industry. That is... at least for a good while to come. As long as North America and Europe shut their doors to Chinese EVs like BYD, there is no other mfr poised to take over Tesla's throne over the EV market.

If Tesla sneezes, everybody else catches a cold. And Tesla is most definitely not feeling well right now.

 

[EdP]

Like it or not, Tesla is the 800 lbs gorilla of the EV world. I'm far from a fan of Musk, but there is no denying he built Tesla to be the dominant EV force it is today. Detroit has farted around with electric vehicles since my high school days and couldn't sell enough in 25 yrs to buy boardroom toilet paper to wipe their collective ass.

If it weren't for Musk and Tesla, none of you would be buying your beautiful EVs today. As it is, Tesla's fortune foretells the rest of the EV industry. That is... at least for a good while to come. As long as North America and Europe shut their doors to Chinese EVs like BYD, there is no other mfr poised to take over Tesla's throne over the EV market.

If Tesla sneezes, everybody else catches a cold. And Tesla is most definitely not feeling well right now.

True, Tesla made a huge difference and Musk deserves much of the credit. Empires do collapse though. No, not tomorrow, but take another look in five years.

 

[Husky]

This article has an interesting take on PHEVs.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/plug-in-hybrids-phev-just-say-no-opinion-feature/

 

[EdP]

This article has an interesting take on PHEVs.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/plug-in-hybrids-phev-just-say-no-opinion-feature/

He does make some good points. It would fit well for a limited number of people given the 40 mile range. It would be great for me, about 47 weeks of the year. Today I drove 8 miles, tomorrow, about 8 miles, but in a few weeks I'll do 1300 miles in two days and return a couple of weeks later

When I was working, it was a 52 mile round trip. Mostly OK. EV would be better.

I'm waiting for the next generation with 500 mile range and fast charge.

 

[Volfy]

If you have the means to charge at home, just get a full EV. Why add the complexity and bulk/weight of an ICE? More than likely, those who buy an EV already have other ICE vehicle(s) anyway, for long drives of other usage cases where EV is less suitable.

IMO, most folks buy a hybrid vehicle because they want the versatility ICE offers but with better mpg than ICE-only can muster. I wouldn't mind getting a mild hybrid myself for this very reason. Others may prefer hybrids to EVs because they do not have access to convenient charging, but they still want to reduce their fossil fuel usage. For those folks, the "PLUG-IN" part in a PHEV would be rather pointless.

 

[steveinarizona]

If you have the means to charge at home, just get a full EV. Why add the complexity and bulk/weight of an ICE? More than likely, those who buy an EV already have other ICE vehicle(s) anyway, for long drives of other usage cases where EV is less suitable.

IMO, most folks buy a hybrid vehicle because they want the versatility ICE offers but with better mpg than ICE-only can muster. I wouldn't mind getting a mild hybrid myself for this very reason. Others may prefer hybrids to EVs because they do not have access to convenient charging, but they still want to reduce their fossil fuel usage. For those folks, the "PLUG-IN" part in a PHEV would be rather pointless.

I used to drive a PHEV (BMW 530e). I viewed the advantage of it being that you could go on a trip and not have to worry about charging stops. In my case I don't do a lot of intercity driving and when I do it is usually for some kind of family event with lots of children so I need a bigger vehicle anyway. My plan is to drive the crap out of my electric car (GV60P) locally and not worry about range and just rent an ICE car for the few times I need to do an intercity trip (by intercity I mean something like Phoenix to Las Vegas) . In a year and a half my car has averaged 3.0 mkh. If I cared, I could likely get at least to the 4s but, as I said, I don't care.

 

[AnClar52]

Add to the discussion the need (at least in the states) for a crackdown on juvenile a$$holes with big jacked up coal-rolling dually pickups who think it’s fun to deliberately block access to chargers and vandalize the connectors, just to show those tree-huggers what they think of them. Until EVs not only have better range but general acceptance, I’m out on them.