Political winds shifting on EVs?

[JohnSC]

I’m visualizing a major metro area. Pick your own local area if you like.

Let’s focus on NYC for discussion purposes. Where are the people? Mostly in multiple dwellings. On street parking, or very expensive parking lots & garages, prevails. Where are the chargers? What’s the etiquette at the charging stations? Will you live to charge your car and get to work? Good luck with all that.

Sure, EV’s or the subsequent technology will be common someday. Today is not that day. In my life I measure such things as “works for me,” or “pain in the ass.” That’s called being a pragmatist in proper social lingo.

I've hired a number of college kids from Columbia in NYC and remember being shocked by them not having a driver's license. I had scores of friends from there over the years and none drove to the city. Same for Chicago. Not everyone, for sure, and maybe not even the majority. Purely anecdotal.

But for all we know, the reporter writing these EV stories doesn't own one, or maybe editor. I was struck by the comments at the end of the WSJ piece. So much misinformation and confusion from people who most likely have never seen the inside of an EV.

Your point is absolutely right about the need for multifamily charging, but years ago I had a wall plug for my little Volt in the basement garage at the office. Dead center in our small city. These "chargers" are just electrical outlets -- the charger is in the vehicle -- and "stations" are kiosks to count the money. Yes, they are high amperage outlets, just like an electric range, dryer or an air conditioner. Until we change the way we think about this, EVs will be commuter vehicles.

As for the GV70 EV's 236 mile range, at my age that's more than my bladder.

 

[PMCErnie]

Cities present their own challenges for sure. Just a couple of points:
Quite a few people who live in cities don't own a vehicle. They don't need one and, as you said, the parking is very expensive.
As far as "refueling" goes, I was recently in NYC for a week. We did a lot of walking and toured a good bit of the city. I didn't see a single gas station. My point is that I suspect getting gas in the city is also a PIA, but they work it out and deal with the inconvenience.

Good points but, YES, NYC has plenty of gas stations. I worked there for almost 30 years.

New York has 5 boroughs too: Manhattan, Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island. The outer boroughs have more private homes, but still contain mucho multiple dwellings/apartment houses.

 

[PMCErnie]

The average price of a new car in the US in 2023 is already $48k. I agree there need to be more cheaper EV options, but we already have a few in the $30k range.
Keep in mind how relatively young this technology is, and how fast it's advancing. What was your cell phone like 15 years ago? Or your car for that matter. Remember when it cost a couple thousand dollars to buy a 55" flat screen TV? Now you can buy them all day long for $300!

Yes, and Tesla prices seem to be dropping monthly to be competitive.

 

[Jhon]

But for all we know, the reporter writing these EV stories doesn't own one, or maybe editor. I was struck by the comments at the end of the WSJ piece. So much misinformation and confusion from people who most likely have never seen the inside of an EV.

Here is a funny story about the Energy Secretary and her trip to show that EV's were practical and charging was not an issue. One big fail. It never really made it to far in the national news. It Just goes to show that the people promoting EV's probably have never seen the inside of one either and also promote misinformation as well.

EV driver calls cops on Energy Secretary after her staff blocks charger with ICE car

An EV driver in Georgia called the police on the US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, after her staff blocked a...

electrek.co

 

[JohnSC]

GM backing off its EV timetable. None of this means EVs are going away, but it seems much has to change before they really take off in the U.S. Ironic that all the buzz is happening as big oil is celebrating record profits amid two major geopolitical storms. Gasoline is not going to be cheaper as fewer drivers line up at the pumps. And the biggest importer of crude oil, China, is well ahead of the U.S. (6.9%) in EV sales and should top 40% by the end of the year.

GM Scales Back EV Plans as Buyers Hesitate

The automaker is abandoning a self-imposed target to build 400,000 electric vehicles by mid-2024.

www.wsj.com

 

[Husky]

Here is a funny story about the Energy Secretary and her trip to show that EV's were practical and charging was not an issue. One big fail. It never really made it to far in the national news. It Just goes to show that the people promoting EV's probably have never seen the inside of one either and also promote misinformation as well.

EV driver calls cops on Energy Secretary after her staff blocks charger with ICE car

An EV driver in Georgia called the police on the US Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, after her staff blocked a...

electrek.co

I suggest you and others checkout the YouTube channel "Charge Overland". This young man and his wife take regular, long camping trips to very beautiful but isolated and remote areas in the California mountains and Arizona desert areas in his Rivian R1T. They are beautifully filmed videos, and he chronicles how and where he charges, how many miles he went, how long it took, etc...
It dispels a lot of myths and misinformation regarding EVs. At this point in time, driving an EV longer distances does, however, require a bit of planning that many people don't or won't do.

 

[Nycturne]

Wait for an EM platform car or the Lexus solid state battery cars.

Assuming Toyota/Lexus isn’t just throwing FUD out there while they are behind everyone else on BEVs. Solid state batteries have been 5 years away for a while now, so it’s hard to gauge when such a beast will actually be available. You might be waiting a while.

Honestly, if makers would produce more PHEVs with 40+ mi on the battery, it would be a useful transition vehicle for many. But the number of trips I make where fast chargers are needed is maybe once or twice a year, and there are enough chargers present to make the sort of trips I do. If I’m going cross-country, I’m taking something else other than my car.

As for the GV70 EV's 236 mile range, at my age that's more than my bladder.

Even at 40, it’s more than my desire to be sitting in a car during a longer trip. Hyundai‘s platform works pretty well for longer trips by keeping the rest stops short, to the point where our trip to Crater Lake felt rushed because I’d have to move the car to make room for folks waiting before we were ready to take off again. But I don’t car trip outside the PNW or west coast, and I’m not out to set any “miles traveled in a day” records, so your mileage will vary.

At this point in time, driving an EV longer distances does, however, require a bit of planning that many people don't or won't do.

Yup, the EV trips I’ve made remind me a lot more of the road trips my family made when I was younger where you’d break out the road atlas. The advantage today is that there’s more live data you can use to plan, and GPS navigation tools can insert charging stops automatically depending on what you use. Charger anxiety would be even worse without modern planning tools, I think.

 

[PMCErnie]

EV’s aren’t working. Growing inventory. Sliding sales. Production cutbacks.

Auto execs are coming clean: EVs aren't working

From GM to Tesla to Mercedes, execs across the auto industry are tempering expectations on electric vehicles.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[wrk2hrd]

45 and I'll stick to my ICE's. (up here in SD where I live, batteries just can't handle -20-50F temps. That's why I got rid of my hybrid for my G80. If I was going to get crappy mileage in the winter, I may as well get AWD and enjoy the snow.

 

[Jhon]

EV's are chomping at the bit, but they are not yet ready for prime time. When the get the charging time down, it will open up the floodgates. It would be a great car to have now if you drive under 200 miles a day and can charge at home every night. I could probably easily get along with one right now as we have two cars and can use the ice one for trips.

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[Tones_G70]

EV's are chomping at the bit, but they are not yet ready for prime time. When the get the charging time down, it will open up the floodgates. It would be a great car to have now if you drive under 200 miles a day and can charge at home every night. I could probably easily get along with one right now as we have two cars and can use the ice one for trips.

How much is it going to cost for a charging station at someone's home? 15K - 20K. I have no clue, just curious.
How much would it cost to charge overnight? (I "assume" these cars have a trickle like effect once fully charged so it doesn't damage the battery? Sorta like the CTEK trickle chargers do?)

I have zero knowledge of the EV world.

 

[Nycturne]

How much is it going to cost for a charging station at someone's home? 15K - 20K. I have no clue, just curious.

Swanky 240V chargers for the home tend to top out at around 500-600$. Installation of a suitable branch circuit depends on labor in your area or if you just run the suitable conduit/wire yourself. If your garage is where your breaker box is, this could be quite reasonable. My utility district paid for the charger (the cost is that they do get usage data from it so they can plan future grid work), and there's federal incentives that allowed me to deduct 30% of the install cost.

For nightly charging, being able to use a dryer circuit could defer the costs of a faster charger in many cases. I have a 40A setup, but if I charged nightly, 24A would be plenty. I overbuilt for my driving, partly because the cost in pulling cable is in labor around here, not the wire/charger.

How much would it cost to charge overnight? (I "assume" these cars have a trickle like effect once fully charged so it doesn't damage the battery? Sorta like the CTEK trickle chargers do?)

It depends a lot on mileage, your utility, if you have time of use rates, etc. I pay a little over 10c/kWh with no TOU rates in the evening, which means a GV60 costs me about 3c/mi for "fuel". My Subaru Outback at ~25mpg (my specific driving) was 16c-20c/mi depending on fuel prices when I traded it in.

For about 5000 mi, the fuel cost has been on the order of 150$ charging at home. Long trips where I have to use DCFC are no better than gas, but not worse in the Seattle area, either.

 

[Husky]

It can certainly vary, depending on the details of your situation, but just having a 240v/50A outlet installed for me was $500. Some manufacturers pay to have one installed.
Buying the actual L2 charger to plug into that outlet is another $500, although some manufacturers include one with the car.
Yes, the charger or the car have features to limit the charge current, and stop when the battery reaches a given percentage of charge (like 80 or 90%).
The cost for the electricity depends on the size of the car's battery of course, and your local electric rate. But at a "typical" rate of $0.25 per kWH, it would only cost $16 to put 80% charge into an 80kWH battery. Pretty cheap.

 

[Husky]

And you may get a rate discount from the utility for charging at night, due to being off -peak hours.

 

[Jhon]

How much is it going to cost for a charging station at someone's home? 15K - 20K. I have no clue, just curious.
How much would it cost to charge overnight? (I "assume" these cars have a trickle like effect once fully charged so it doesn't damage the battery? Sorta like the CTEK trickle chargers do?)

I have zero knowledge of the EV world.

You can get a level 1 or 2 charger for about 200 bucks.(Look on Amazon, some are even cheaper, and some are more expensive.) But it has to be installed. That won't be much either provided you have enough space in your electrical box and you service apms are good and your electrical box is near where you want the charger. This is something I can do myself, but most people are afraid of electricity so an electrician would charge anywhere from a couple of hundred bucks and up, up, up depending on where and how far your electrical box is. But, if everything is running against you, and you need to upgrade your electrical service and your Box is located in a bad spot, and the box and the charger are on opposite ends of the house, you could get into the thousands.
I had generator cut off installed in my house a few years back. It cost $450 including the hardware and outlet. There would be the same amount of work for an electrician to wire the charger and less equipment. But depending on where your are, and how honest your electrician is, who knows. My neighbor had the same generator system installed in his house and the electrician gouged him for $1,250. It was exactly the same and he got the same stuff I got.

I would imagine that when the car is charged, it would shut off just like your phone.

Now the level 1 or 2 chargers will take a good chunk of time to charge your car, not an hour like the superchargers do, but I sleep 8 hours a night so that is no problem for me. Also, I can take my wife's car if need be.

 

[SuperKing]

EVs are like any transformational technology. Rejected at first. ICE was completely rejected back when horses were the main mode of transportation. Blockbuster was the goto for movies, only to be replaced by Netflix and film based cameras made obsolete by mobile phones...

100 years ago, EV's were actually outselling ICE cars. Then someone invented the electric starter which means people won't be breaking their arms or getting smacked in the face by hand cranking their engines. This allowed more people to use gasoline as a fuel which was cheap because at the time, it was an unwanted byproduct from refining petroleum.

The issue with ICE isn't the mechanics of it, it's the fuel it uses. If someone finds a cheap clean fuel to keep ICE cars running, history may repeat itself.

 

[JohnSC]

I sat this WSJ article on Musk aside last week to read later. Nervous guy. Bracing for the end of the world.

Tesla's problems suggest that 300 mile range and the best charging network, not to mention $7,500 tax credit, are not enough to attract the next wave of EV buyers. At least yet. An analyst talking to CNBC today expressed the opinion that the slippage was momentary, and that the big issue was form factor with buyers who want SUVs and not cars. Cost also was cited.

Makes sense for families with children, at the least. Wonder how many EV sales are households without children, and retirees? If so, how many HHs without children are in fact multifamily housing (with 8% mortgage rates) with no garage for home charging? Or, higher income professionals buying them as a second car for commuting, ala Jay Leno?

If they key is SUVs, then they are a real challenge when my GV70 EV weighs in at almost 5k pounds with a battery that adds $10k in cost and gets 236 miles. A Hummer weighs 9k pounds, has a 200 kWh battery pack, gets 320 miles and costs an eye-watering six figures.

And an SUV is something even Musk has not brought to market, even as he pushes back on his pet cybertruck.

Elon Musk’s Outlook on Our Future Turns Dour

The billionaire entrepreneur has been in a dark place these days in the midst of worries about war and U.S. resilience.

www.wsj.com